Research every player prop from one screen

A good player prop research tool answers two questions on one screen: what is this prop actually worth, and who is paying the most for it? The quant+ props board does that. Every player prop gets the best over and under price across sportsbooks and prediction markets, a fair price with the book margin removed, the edge at the best price, and the player's last ten games against the line.

The last-ten column is the part most prop apps lead with. On quant+ it sits at the end of the row, for a reason this page explains.

What the props board shows on each row

One row per player market (points, passing yards, shots on goal, strikeouts and so on), with these columns:

• Player and Game.
• Line, with a count of alternate lines when books offer them.
• Over and Under: the best price on each side, the logo of the book offering it, and the fair price printed underneath.
• Edge: the expected value of the best price against the fair price.
• Books: how many books are pricing this prop.
• Last 10: how many of the player's last ten games cleared this line, the average, and a small strip of green (over) and red (under) games.

Open a row and you get every book's main and alternate lines side by side, plus a chart of the player's last ten games. Click any price to log the bet in your journal with the fair probability captured at that moment.

Filters cover the time window (upcoming, live, today, tomorrow, next seven days), game, team, player name, a minimum number of books, and a "+EV only" switch. You can show odds as American, decimal or implied probability. Leagues: NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, MLB and NHL.

How the fair price on a prop is calculated

A prop is a two-way market, so the fair price comes from removing the book's margin from both sides. Here is the arithmetic on a typical points prop (an illustration, not a result):

Step	Over 24.5	Under 24.5
Price at the sharp book	-115	-105
Implied probability	53.49%	51.22%
Sum of both sides	104.71%
Fair probability, margin removed	51.08%	48.92%
Fair American odds	about -104	about +104
Best price elsewhere on the over	+100
EV per 100 staked at +100	0.5108 × 100 − 0.4892 × 100 = +2.17

The table uses simple normalization to keep the math readable. On lopsided props (an anytime touchdown at +400, say) books tend to load more margin onto the longshot, and splitting it evenly overstates the longshot's chances. A study in the American Journal of Sports Science compared four methods and found the power method beat normalization and matched or beat Shin across three large datasets. quant+ uses the power method by default and lets you switch to multiplicative, additive or Shin. It uses sharp books when they price the prop and the consensus of the board when they don't.

Why start from the market at all? Because prices are hard forecasts to beat. A PLOS ONE paper found that betting odds forecast results better than various quantitative models. A prop tool that ignores the price and shows you a hit rate is skipping the most informed number on the page.

Why a last-10 hit rate can mislead you

Say a player has cleared 24.5 points in 7 of their last 10 games. That reads like a 70 percent over. It isn't.

Ten games is a tiny sample. A rough 95 percent range on a 7-for-10 record runs from about 42 percent to 98 percent (binomial standard error, our arithmetic). The market's 51 percent is not far outside that, and the market also knows about the injury report, the matchup, the minutes projection and the pace. Streaks are also harder to read than they look: Miller and Sanjurjo showed in Econometrica that the common way of measuring what happens after a streak carries a subtle but substantial bias, large enough to reverse the conclusion of the best-known hot-hand study. Short windows and streak counting are where intuition goes wrong.

That's why the last-ten strip on quant+ is coloured against the market's own implied chance, not against 50 percent. A 6-for-10 record on a prop priced at 60 percent is exactly what the market expected. It tells you nothing new.

Use the last ten for context: a role change, a minutes jump, a new starting quarterback. Use the price for the decision.

How to research a prop in five minutes

1. Filter to one game and "+EV only", then sort by best edge.
2. Check the Books column. A prop priced by one book has a fair price built on very little. Set a minimum of three or more books if you only want props with a real market behind them.
3. Open the row. Compare every book's main and alternate lines. An alternate line at one book is sometimes priced better than the main line elsewhere.
4. Read the last ten for context, not as a probability. Look for a reason the market might be slow (a lineup change announced in the last hour) rather than a streak.
5. Log it with one click. The journal records the fair probability at that moment, then grades the bet and measures your closing line value. After a few weeks you know whether the props you pick actually beat the close.

Limits worth knowing

Thin markets. Props have fewer books and less money behind them than game lines, so the fair price is less certain. Treat a large edge on a one-book prop with suspicion.

Account limits. Books restrict bettors who keep taking good prices. Researchers who bet a market-based strategy with real money had bookmakers cap their stakes within months, one to $10.45 on a $50 bet. Props are where limits tend to come fastest.

Settlement. The last-ten column shows "n/a" for markets that box scores can't settle cleanly. We'd rather show nothing than a guessed number.

No picks. quant+ never tells you which prop to bet, never places bets and never connects to your sportsbook accounts. It shows prices and history; you decide. Read the risk disclosure first.

Where props fit in quant+

The props board shares its fair prices with the rest of the terminal: the +EV scanner lists props alongside sides and totals, the odds board shows every book on one screen, and the bet journal grades props automatically. If you're new to fair odds, the quant+ guides start there.

Start free and open the props board on tonight's slate, or see the terminal on the home page.

Quant+ is analytics for informational purposes. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.